Pitch Radar

Dynamo Moscow vs CSKA Moscow: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 11 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win47%Dynamo Moscow
Draw25%
Away win28%CSKA Moscow
Expected points, home1.67

What to expect

A slight edge to Dynamo Moscow: 47% against 28%. Attack against defence: level, 1.31 and 1.29 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Dynamo Moscow have taken 3.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Dynamo Moscow391915.5+3.51.430.94
CSKA Moscow491915.9+3.11.651.19

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →