Pitch Radar

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 14 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win36%Lokomotiv Moscow
Draw27%
Away win37%Rubin Kazan
Expected points, home1.36

What to expect

No clear favourite: 36% home, 27% draw, 37% away. Attack against defence: Rubin Kazan should create more, 1.38 expected goals a match against 1.18. Read the table with care: Rubin Kazan have taken 1.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lokomotiv Moscow14977.9−0.91.051.76
Rubin Kazan691210.3+1.70.991.31

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →