Pitch Radar

Rubin Kazan vs Dynamo Moscow: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 10 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win23%Rubin Kazan
Draw28%
Away win49%Dynamo Moscow
Expected points, home0.97

What to expect

A slight edge to Dynamo Moscow: 49% against 23%. Attack against defence: Dynamo Moscow should create more, 1.37 expected goals a match against 0.96. Read the table with care: Dynamo Moscow have taken 3.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Rubin Kazan691210.3+1.70.991.31
Dynamo Moscow391915.5+3.51.430.94

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →