The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Zenit: 47% against 26%. Attack against defence: level, 1.26 and 1.19 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Zenit have taken 2.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 5 | 9 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14.0 | −2.0 | 1.38 | 1.08 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.