The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Zenit are favourites: 56% to win against 19%. Attack against defence: Zenit should create more, 1.30 expected goals a match against 1.02. Read the table with care: Zenit have taken 2.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 5 | 9 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Akhmat Grozny | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11.5 | −1.5 | 1.05 | 1.16 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.