The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Mainz 05 are favourites: 58% to win against 25%. Attack against defence: Mainz 05 should create more, 2.58 expected goals a match against 1.90. Read the table with care: Augsburg have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
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