The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Bayern Munich are favourites: 90% to win against 3%. Attack against defence: Bayern Munich should create more, 2.96 expected goals a match against 1.06. Read the table with care: Hamburger SV have taken 3.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | 1.19 | 2.13 |
| Bayern Munich | 1 | 6 | 14 | 16.6 | −2.6 | 3.80 | 0.94 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →