The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Mainz 05 are favourites: 83% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Mainz 05 should create more, 2.37 expected goals a match against 1.33. Mainz 05 are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11.7 | −1.6 | 2.38 | 1.48 |
| Union Berlin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5.7 | −0.7 | 1.18 | 2.35 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →