The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Como are favourites: 55% to win against 26%. Attack against defence: Como should create more, 2.12 expected goals a match against 1.56. Fiorentina are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
| Como | 8 | 5 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 2.31 | 1.58 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.