The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to RB Leipzig: 49% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 2.08 and 2.06 expected goals a match. Mainz 05 are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 5 | 7 | 12 | 13.3 | −1.3 | 2.46 | 1.82 |
| Mainz 05 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 12.3 | −2.4 | 2.30 | 1.69 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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