Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV: match prediction

Bundesliga · Round 12 · 5 Dec 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win41%Union Berlin

Draw27%

Away win32%Hamburger SV

Expected points, home1.50

What to expect

A slight edge to Union Berlin: 41% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.57 and 1.70 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Hamburger SV have taken 3.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Union Berlin	17	7	6	6.2	−0.2	1.13	2.31
Hamburger SV	11	7	9	6.0	+3.0	1.08	2.02

Recent matches

Augsburg — Union Berlin 1:1 Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund 0:0 Union Berlin — Elversberg 1:0 Bayern Munich — Union Berlin 7:0 Union Berlin — Schalke 04 1:3

Paderborn — Hamburger SV 1:0 Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart 1:0 Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV 2:3 Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln 2:1 RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV 5:0

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions